Scott Moss and Bruce Edmonds (2005)
Towards Good Social Science
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
vol. 8, no. 4
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Received: 02-Oct-2005 Accepted: 02-Oct-2005 Published: 31-Oct-2005
2 They do claim to predict some more abstract properties, e.g. the rate of change in junk DNA.
3 In order to be made to apply, a whole series of simplifications, approximations and assumptions need to be used, which can not be completely justified by reference to the laws.
4 It takes a great deal of effort and skill to make the conditions hold, which is why designing convincing experiments (which to a large extent do this) is so difficult.
5 The points made about Copernicus are from Kuhn (1992).
6 Later on, with the availability of good data, it could be shown that given any finite set of data that the Copernican account using elliptical orbits would forecast future planetary positions more accurately than one using Ptolemaic epi-cycles.
7 This account is from Mahon (2003), pp. 61-63.
8 There are, of course, difficulties attendant on the proposition (which we accept) that social reality is socially constructed and the mind cannot be studied except by minds. There is no more reason for us to believe that this is a a barrier to analytical consistency than it was for Einstein to believe that the impossibility of observing some objective universal clock is a barrier to formal consistency in physics (Einstein 1961).
9 The two most important such experimental studies were undoubtedly Allais and Kahneman and Tverski — both the rationale for Nobel prizes in economics (i.e. Swedish Bank Prizes in memory of Alfred Nobel).
10 Bollerslev (2001) identifies the core econometric processes of relevance here to be the ARCH process (Engle 1982), the GMM process (Hansen 1982) and GARCH (Bollerslev 1986).
11 Of course, it is impossible to completely avoid all prior unvalidated theory in the construction of agents, but this should not be a constraint. That is to say that one should be flexible about the way agents are constructed, paying particular care to ensure consistency with any available accounts, and be willing to change the design when and where it comes into conflict with evidence.
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