Policy Advice Derived from Simulation Models
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
12 (4) 2
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Received: 19-Aug-2009 Accepted: 22-Aug-2009 Published: 31-Oct-2009
(e)mpirical analysis in any research field is entwined in theoretical analysis. That is, empirical work depends on theory for concepts, definitions and hypotheses, all of which are used as foundations for empirical investigation (Cowan and Foray 2002, p. 540).
(Induction) never can originate any idea whatever. No more can deduction. All the ideas of science come to it by the way of abduction. Abduction consists in studying the facts and devising a theory to explain them. Its only justification is that if we are ever to understand things at all, it must be in this way.A fundamental problem of abduction is that it can produce results that are wrong within its own logical system, because different causes can lead to the same effect and that the same cause can lead to different effects (Downward et al. 2002, 482). Therefore, results of abduction have to be combined with induction or deduction in order to come to substantial and meaningful results (Lipton 2001).
have a notion of causality and connectedness in their theorising, though make closure assumptions. Two forms of closure are central to this perspective. The intrinsic condition of closure—which can be characterised loosely as implying that a cause always produces the same effect ... The extrinsic condition of closure—which loosely can be understood as implying that an effects always has the same cause ..." (Downward et al., 2002 482).
(t)he measuring and recording of states of affairs, the collection, tabulation, transformation and graphing of statistics about the economy, … detailed case studies, oral reporting, including interviews, biographies, and so on. (Lawson 1997, 221).Lawson approves of all kinds of ways to collect data but restricts its use to a local and specific analysis (Brown et al. 2002, 782). The reason for this is that he and other Critical Realists do not approve of using statistics and mathematics in order to compare larger sets of cases in a systematic way or in order to test deductively inferred models empirically. They believe that the use of statistics and mathematics only serves to detect intrinsic and extrinsic conditions of closure, i.e. that one cause has one effect and the other way around. However, this is quite jumping to conclusions: As Reiss (2004) shows in a very convincing way the use of statistics and mathematical modelling does by no means imply that these strict conditions of closure are used. In particular, there are some mainstream modellers who employ statistics and mathematics in such a way that they account for the historical context, i.e. that their specific data only hold in the context of a particular time and place.
Not much can be said about this process of retroduction independent of context other than it is likely to operate under a logic of analogy or metaphor and to draw heavily on the investigator's perspective, beliefs and experience. (Lawson 1997, 212)
|Table 1: Probability of the emergence of a local cluster in a certain region with or without specific policy measures (*/**=significant difference to the case without policy measure on a significance level of 0.1/0.05)|
|no policy support||policy measure implemented in the|
|first five years||years|
|all industries (all parameter sets)||8.8%||13.1%**||11.3%||12.5%*||10.4%|
|internal sources dominate (s/mL<2/3)||8.2%||13.0%||12.3%||11.7%||9.9%|
|external sources dominate (s/mL >1.5)||6.7%||15.3%**||11.5%||15.3%**||10.2%|
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