JASSS logo


3 articles matched your search for the keywords:
Research Networks, Policy Modelling, Simulation Laboratory, EU Research Landscape

Modelling Research Policy: Ex-Ante Evaluation of Complex Policy Instruments

Petra Ahrweiler, Michel Schilperoord, Andreas Pyka and Nigel Gilbert
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 18 (4) 5

Kyeywords: Research Networks, Policy Modelling, Simulation Laboratory, EU Research Landscape
Abstract: This paper presents the agent-based model INFSO-SKIN, which provides ex-ante evaluation of possible funding policies in Horizon 2020 for the European Commission’s DG Information Society and Media (DG INFSO). Informed by a large dataset recording the details of funded projects, the simulation model is set up to reproduce and assess the funding strategies, the funded organisations and projects, and the resulting network structures of the Commission’s Framework 7 (FP7) programme. To address the evaluative questions of DG INFSO, this model, extrapolated into the future without any policy changes, is taken as an evidence-based benchmark for further experiments. Against this baseline scenario the following example policy changes are tested: (i) What if there were changes to the thematic scope of the programme? (ii) What if there were changes to the instruments of funding? (iii) What if there were changes to the overall amount of programme funding? (iv) What if there were changes to increase Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) participation? The results of these simulation experiments reveal some likely scenarios as policy options for Horizon 2020. The paper thus demonstrates that realistic modelling with a close data-to-model link can directly provide policy advice.

Computational Modelling of Public Policy: Reflections on Practice

Nigel Gilbert, Petra Ahrweiler, Pete Barbrook-Johnson, Kavin Preethi Narasimhan and Helen Wilkinson
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 21 (1) 14

Kyeywords: Policy Modelling, Policy Evaluation, Policy Appraisal, Modelling Guidelines, Collaboration, Ethics
Abstract: Computational models are increasingly being used to assist in developing, implementing and evaluating public policy. This paper reports on the experience of the authors in designing and using computational models of public policy (‘policy models’, for short). The paper considers the role of computational models in policy making, and some of the challenges that need to be overcome if policy models are to make an effective contribution. It suggests that policy models can have an important place in the policy process because they could allow policy makers to experiment in a virtual world, and have many advantages compared with randomised control trials and policy pilots. The paper then summarises some general lessons that can be extracted from the authors’ experience with policy modelling. These general lessons include the observation that often the main benefit of designing and using a model is that it provides an understanding of the policy domain, rather than the numbers it generates; that care needs to be taken that models are designed at an appropriate level of abstraction; that although appropriate data for calibration and validation may sometimes be in short supply, modelling is often still valuable; that modelling collaboratively and involving a range of stakeholders from the outset increases the likelihood that the model will be used and will be fit for purpose; that attention needs to be paid to effective communication between modellers and stakeholders; and that modelling for public policy involves ethical issues that need careful consideration. The paper concludes that policy modelling will continue to grow in importance as a component of public policy making processes, but if its potential is to be fully realised, there will need to be a melding of the cultures of computational modelling and policy making.

Models Within Models – Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation in Energy Systems Analysis

Martin Klein, Ulrich J. Frey and Matthias Reeg
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 22 (4) 6

Kyeywords: Agent Based Modelling, Computational Economics, Energy Systems Analysis, Modelling Guidelines, Policy Modelling, Energy Scenarios
Abstract: This paper tries to show the various roles agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) can play in technology and policy assessment of energy systems. We examine the advantages of ABMS methods using three case studies of electricity market models as example (AMIRIS, EMLab-Generation and PowerACE). In particular, we argue why ABMS might serve as framework for many future energy system models that integrate many different algorithms. We then discuss practical and theoretical problems in the development, validation and assessment of energy-system-analytical ABMS and conclude with an outlook and recommendations for energy system modellers who consider incorporating ABMS into their modelling toolbox.