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5 articles matched your search for the keywords:
Mass Shootings, Public Policy, Criminology

Using Microsimulation to Optimize an Income Transfer System Towards Poverty Reduction

Seppo Sallila
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 13 (1) 1

Kyeywords: Inequality, Optimization, Poverty, Public Policy, Simulation Methodology, Tax-Benefit System
Abstract: In this study, a static microsimulation model SOMA is used to optimize Finland's tax-benefit legislation to alleviate poverty or at least to reduce it significantly. The method is a classical optimization method using a greed optimization strategy. This means an iterative process, where only one poverty diminishing parameter is changed by 10% from its earlier value at each iteration. Expenses are also optimized to reduce inequality as measured by the Gini-coefficient. Revenues and expenses are balanced at every iteration. Certain parameters of social assistance were found to be the most effective in reducing poverty. However by raising substantially the basic unemployment benefit, basic pensions, housing benefits and study grants - leaving social assistance untouched - poverty was reduced by under 50 percent. This means that social assistance is still required to reduce poverty further. Costs are most effectively financed by raising capital income tax.

Power of Criminal Attractors: Modeling the Pull of Activity Nodes

Richard Frank, Vahid Dabbaghian, Andrew Reid, Suraj Singh, Jonathan Cinnamon and Patricia Brantingham
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 14 (1) 6

Kyeywords: Crime Attractor, Directionality of Crime, Mathematical Modeling, Computational Criminology
Abstract: The spatial distribution of crime has been a long-standing interest in the field of criminology. Research in this area has shown that activity nodes and travel paths are key components that help to define patterns of offending. Little research, however, has considered the influence of activity nodes on the spatial distribution of crimes in crime neutral areas - those where crimes are more haphazardly dispersed. Further, a review of the literature has revealed a lack of research in determining the relative strength of attraction that different types of activity nodes possess based on characteristics of criminal events in their immediate surrounds. In this paper we use offenders' home locations and the locations of their crimes to define directional and distance parameters. Using these parameters we apply mathematical structures to define rules by which different models may behave to investigate the influence of activity nodes on the spatial distribution of crimes in crime neutral areas. The findings suggest an increasing likelihood of crime as a function of geometric angle and distance from an offender's home location to the site of the criminal event. Implications of the results are discussed.

Modeling the Transition to Public School Choice

Spiro Maroulis, Eytan Bakshy, Louis Gomez and Uri Wilensky
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 17 (2) 3

Kyeywords: Public Policy, Education, School Choice
Abstract: We develop an agent-based model that captures the dynamic processes related to moving from an educational system in which students are automatically assigned to a neighborhood school to one that gives households more choice among existing and newly formed public schools. Analysis of our model reveals the importance of considering the timing of the entrance of new schools into the system in addition to their quantity and quality. Our model further reveals a range of conditions where the more households emphasize school achievement relative to geographic proximity in their school choice decision, the lower the mean achievement of the district \" a paradoxical mismatch between micro- and macro-levels of behavior. We use data from Chicago Public Schools to initialize the model.

Agent-Based Simulation of Mass Shootings: Determining How to Limit the Scale of a Tragedy

Roy Hayes and Reginald Hayes
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 17 (2) 5

Kyeywords: Mass Shootings, Public Policy, Criminology
Abstract: An agent-based simulation was created to examine key parameters in mass shootings. The goal of the simulation was to examine the potential effectiveness of Senator Dianne Feinstein’s (D-Calif.) assault weapons and high-capacity magazines bill. Based on the analysis, the proposed law would have a negligible effect on the number of people shot during mass shootings. The assault weapons portion of the proposed bill will have no effect on the number of people killed or wounded in a mass shooting. The assault weapons ban does not seek to decrease the rate of fire of any firearm. Of the parameters tested a weapon’s rate of fire has the greatest effect on the number of people wounded or killed by that weapon. However, a ban on high-capacity magazines will result in a small number of lives saved during a mass shooting. This paper demonstrates simulation’s ability to examine proposed policies and provide a framework for more meaningful discussions.

Interpreting School Choice Treatment Effects: Results and Implications from Computational Experiments

Spiro Maroulis
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 19 (1) 7

Kyeywords: Public Policy, Education, School Choice, Causal Inference
Abstract: Providing parents and students a choice to attend schools other than their assigned neighborhood school has been a leading theme in recent education reform. To evaluate the effects of such choice-based programs, researchers have taken advantage of the randomization that occurs in student assignment lotteries put in place to deal with oversubscription to popular schools and pilot programs. In this study, I used an agent-based model of the transition to school choice as platform for examining the sensitivity of school choice treatment effects from lottery-based studies to differences in student preferences and program participation rates across hypothetical study populations. I found that districts with higher participation rates had lower treatment effects, even when there were no differences in the distributions of school quality and student preferences between districts. This is because capacity constraints increasingly limited the amount of students who are able to attend the highest quality schools, causing the magnitude of the treatment effect to fall. I discuss the implications of this finding for interpreting the results of lottery-based studies involving choice schools.