51 articles matched your search for
Mate Choice, Mate Search, Simple Heuristics, Agent-Based Simulation, Behavioral Stability, Equilibrium Strategies
Juan de Lara Jaramillo and Manuel Alfonseca
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 3 (4) 2
Kyeywords: Multi-Agent Systems, Agent-Based Simulation, Self-Organization, Language
Abstract: In this paper, we present several experiments of belief propagation in multi-agent communities. Each agent in the simulation has an initial random vocabulary (4 words) corresponding to each possible movement (north, south, east and west). Agents move and communicate the associated word to the surrounding agents, which can be convinced by the 'speaking agent', and change their corresponding word by 'imitation'. Vocabulary uniformity is achieved, but strong interactions and competition can occur between dominant words. Several moving and trusting strategies as well as agent roles are analyzed.
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 4 (1) 5
Kyeywords: Agent-Based Simulation, Computer Modelling, Software Frameworks, Java
Abstract: Ascape is a framework designed to support the development, visualization, and exploration of agent based models. In this article I will argue that agent modeling tools and Ascape, in particular, can contribute significantly to the quality, creativity, and efficiency of social science simulation research efforts. Ascape is examined from the perspectives of use, design, and development. While Ascape has some unique design advantages, a close examination should also provide potential tool users with more insight into the kinds of services and features agent modeling toolkits provide in general.
Luis R. Izquierdo, Nicholas M. Gotts and Gary Polhill
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 7 (3) 1
Kyeywords: Social Dilemmas, Case-Based Reasoning, Prisoner's Dilemma, Agent-Based Simulation, Analogy, Game Theory, Aspiration Thresholds, Equilibrium
Abstract: In this paper social dilemmas are modelled as n-player games. Orthodox game theorists have been able to provide several concepts that narrow the set of expected outcomes in these models. However, in their search for a reduced set of solutions, they had to pay a very high price: they had to make disturbing assumptions such as instrumental rationality or common knowledge of rationality, which are rarely observed in any real-world situation. We propose a complementary approach, assuming that people adapt their behaviour according to their experience and look for outcomes that have proved to be satisfactory in the past. These ideas are investigated by conducting several experiments with an agent-based simulation model in which agents use a simple form of case-based reasoning. It is shown that cooperation can emerge from the interaction of selfish case-based reasoners. In determining how often cooperation occurs, aspiration thresholds, the agents' representation of the world, and their memory all play an important and interdependent role. It is also argued that case-based reasoners with high enough aspiration thresholds are not systemically exploitable, and that if agents were sophisticated enough to infer that other players are not exploitable either, they would eventually cooperate.
Nuno David, Jaime Simão Sichman and Helder Coelho
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 8 (4) 2
Kyeywords: Computer and Social Sciences, Agent-Based Simulation, Intentional Computation, Program Verification, Intentional Verification, Scientific Knowledge
Abstract: The classical theory of computation does not represent an adequate model of reality for simulation in the social sciences. The aim of this paper is to construct a methodological perspective that is able to conciliate the formal and empirical logic of program verification in computer science, with the interpretative and multiparadigmatic logic of the social sciences. We attempt to evaluate whether social simulation implies an additional perspective about the way one can understand the concepts of program and computation. We demonstrate that the logic of social simulation implies at least two distinct types of program verifications that reflect an epistemological distinction in the kind of knowledge one can have about programs. Computer programs seem to possess a causal capability (Fetzer, 1999) and an intentional capability that scientific theories seem not to possess. This distinction is associated with two types of program verification, which we call empirical and intentional verification. We demonstrate, by this means, that computational phenomena are also intentional phenomena, and that such is particularly manifest in agent-based social simulation. Ascertaining the credibility of results in social simulation requires a focus on the identification of a new category of knowledge we can have about computer programs. This knowledge should be considered an outcome of an experimental exercise, albeit not empirical, acquired within a context of limited consensus. The perspective of intentional computation seems to be the only one possible to reflect the multiparadigmatic character of social science in terms of agent-based computational social science. We contribute, additionally, to the clarification of several questions that are found in the methodological perspectives of the discipline, such as the computational nature, the logic of program scalability, and the multiparadigmatic character of agent-based simulation in the social sciences.
István Back and Andreas Flache
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 9 (1) 12
Kyeywords: Interpersonal Commitment, Fairness, Reciprocity, Agent-Based Simulation, Help Exchange, Evolution
Abstract: A prominent explanation of cooperation in repeated exchange is reciprocity (e.g. Axelrod, 1984). However, empirical studies indicate that exchange partners are often much less intent on keeping the books balanced than Axelrod suggested. In particular, there is evidence for commitment behavior, indicating that people tend to build long-term cooperative relationships characterised by largely unconditional cooperation, and are inclined to hold on to them even when this appears to contradict self-interest. Using an agent-based computational model, we examine whether in a competitive environment commitment can be a more successful strategy than reciprocity. We move beyond previous computational models by proposing a method that allows to systematically explore an infinite space of possible exchange strategies. We use this method to carry out two sets of simulation experiments designed to assess the viability of commitment against a large set of potential competitors. In the first experiment, we find that although unconditional cooperation makes strategies vulnerable to exploitation, a strategy of commitment benefits more from being more unconditionally cooperative. The second experiment shows that tolerance improves the performance of reciprocity strategies but does not make them more successful than commitment. To explicate the underlying mechanism, we also study the spontaneous formation of exchange network structures in the simulated populations. It turns out that commitment strategies benefit from efficient networking: they spontaneously create a structure of exchange relations that ensures efficient division of labor. The problem with stricter reciprocity strategies is that they tend to spread interaction requests randomly across the population, to keep relations in balance. During times of great scarcity of exchange partners this structure is inefficient because it generates overlapping personal networks so that often too many people try to interact with the same partner at the same time.
Jill Bigley Dunham
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 9 (1) 3
Kyeywords: Epidemiology, Social Networks, Agent-Based Simulation, MASON Toolkit
Abstract: This paper outlines the design and implementation of an agent-based epidemiological simulation system. The system was implemented in the MASON toolkit, a set of Java-based agent-simulation libraries. This epidemiological simulation system is robust and extensible for multiple applications, including classroom demonstrations of many types of epidemics and detailed numerical experimentation on a particular disease. The application has been made available as an applet on the MASON web site, and as source code on the author\'s web site.
Jijun Zhao, Ferenc Szidarovszky and Miklos N. Szilagyi
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10 (3) 3
Kyeywords: Agent-Based Simulation, N-Person Games, Structure Analysis, Equilibrium
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to present a systematic analysis of the long-term behavior of the agents of an artificial society under varying payoff functions in finite neighborhood binary games. By assuming the linearity of the payoffs of both cooperating and defecting agents, the type of the game is determined by four fundamental parameters. By fixing the values of three of them and systematically varying the fourth one we can observe a transition from Prisoner\'s Dilemma to Leader Game through Chicken and Benevolent Chicken Games. By using agent-based simulation we are able to observe the long-term behavior of the artificial society with different and gradually changing payoff structure. The difference between different games is explored and the effect of the transition from one game to the other on the society is investigated. The results depend on the personality types of the agents. In this study greedy and Pavlovian agents are considered. In the first case, we observe the most significant change in trajectory structure between Prisoner\'s Dilemma and Chicken Games showing significant difference in the behavioral patterns of the agents. Almost no changes can be observed between Benevolent Chicken and Leader Games, and only small change between Chicken and Benevolent Chicken. The trajectories change from always converging to regularly oscillating patterns with systematically altering amplitude and central values. The results are very similar whether the agents consider themselves as members of their neighborhoods or not. With Pavlovian agents no significant difference can be observed between the four games, the trajectories always converge and the limits smoothly and monotonically depend on the value of the varying parameter.
Jean-Philippe Cointet and Camille Roth
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 10 (3) 5
Kyeywords: Agent-Based Simulation, Complex Systems, Empirical Calibration and Validation, Knowledge Diffusion, Model Comparison, Social Networks
Abstract: Knowledge diffusion models typically involve two main features: an underlying social network topology on one side, and a particular design of interaction rules driving knowledge transmission on the other side. Acknowledging the need for realistic topologies and adoption behaviors backed by empirical measurements, it becomes unclear how accurately existing models render real-world phenomena: if indeed both topology and transmission mechanisms have a key impact on these phenomena, to which extent does the use of more or less stylized assumptions affect modeling results? In order to evaluate various classical topologies and mechanisms, we push the comparison to more empirical benchmarks: real-world network structures and empirically measured mechanisms. Special attention is paid to appraising the discrepancy between diffusion phenomena (i) on some real network topologies vs. various kinds of scale-free networks, and (ii) using an empirically-measured transmission mechanism, compared with canonical appropriate models such as threshold models. We find very sensible differences between the more realistic settings and their traditional stylized counterparts. On the whole, our point is thus also epistemological by insisting that models should be tested against simulation-based empirical benchmarks.
Ugo Merlone, Michele Sonnessa and Pietro Terna
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 11 (2) 5
Kyeywords: Replication of Models; Model Validation; Agent-Based Simulation
Abstract: In this paper we discuss strategies concerning the implementation of an agent-based simulation of complex phenomena. The model we consider accounts for population decomposition and interaction in industrial districts. The approach we follow is twofold: on one hand, we implement progressively more complex models using different approaches (vertical multiple implementations); on the other hand, we replicate the agent-based simulation with different implementations using jESOF, JAS and plain C++ (horizontal multiple implementations). By using both different implementation approaches and a multiple implementation strategy, we highlight the benefits that arise when the same model is implemented on radically different simulation environments, comparing the advantages of multiple modeling implementations. Our findings provide some important suggestions in terms of model validation, showing how models of complex systems tend to be extremely sensitive to implementation details. Finally we point out how statistical techniques may be necessary when comparing different platform implementations of a single model.
Keiki Takadama, Tetsuro Kawai and Yuhsuke Koyama
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 11 (2) 9
Kyeywords: Micro- and Macro-Level Validation, Agent-Based Simulation, Agent Modeling, Sequential Bargaining Game, Reinforcement Learning
Abstract: This paper addresses both micro- and macro-level validation in agent-based simulation (ABS) to explore validated agents that can reproduce not only human-like behaviors externally but also human-like thinking internally. For this purpose, we employ the sequential bargaining game, which can investigate a change in humans' behaviors and thinking longer than the ultimatum game (i.e., one-time bargaining game), and compare simulation results of Q-learning agents employing any type of the three types of action selections (i.e., the ε-greedy, roulette, and Boltzmann distribution selections) in the game. Intensive simulations have revealed the following implications: (1) Q-learning agents with any type of three action selections can reproduce human-like behaviors but not human-like thinking, which means that they are validated from the macro-level viewpoint but not from the micro-level viewpoint; and (2) Q-learning agents employing Boltzmann distribution selection with changing the random parameter can reproduce both human-like behaviors and thinking, which means that they are validated from both micro- and macro-level viewpoints.
Alan G. Isaac
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 11 (3) 8
Kyeywords: Agent-Based Simulation, Python, Prisoner's Dilemma
Abstract: This paper is an introduction to agent-based simulation using the Python programming language. The core objective of the paper is to enable students, teachers, and researchers immediately to begin social-science simulation projects in a general purpose programming language. This objective is facilitated by design features of the Python programming language, which we very briefly discuss. The paper has a 'tutorial' component, in that it is enablement-focused and therefore strongly application-oriented. As our illustrative application, we choose a classic agent-based simulation model: the evolutionary iterated prisoner's dilemma. We show how to simulate the iterated prisoner's dilemma with code that is simple and readable yet flexible and easily extensible. Despite the simplicity of the code, it constitutes a useful and easily extended simulation toolkit. We offer three examples of this extensibility: we explore the classic result that topology matters for evolutionary outcomes, we show how player type evolution is affected by payoff cardinality, and we show that strategy evaluation procedures can affect strategy persistence. Social science students and instructors should find that this paper provides adequate background to immediately begin their own simulation projects. Social science researchers will additionally be able to compare the simplicity, readability, and extensibility of the Python code with comparable simulations in other languages.
Keith Christensen and Yuya Sasaki
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 11 (3) 9
Kyeywords: Agent-Based Simulation, Individual-Based Simulation, Disability, Emergency Egress, Evacuation, Reinforcement Learning
Abstract: Catastrophic events have raised numerous issues concerning how effectively the built environment accommodates the evacuation needs of individuals with disabilities. Individuals with disabilities represent a significant, yet often overlooked, portion of the population disproportionately affected in emergency situations. Incorporating disability considerations into emergency evacuation planning, preparation, and other activities is critical. The most widely applied method used to evaluate how effectively the built environment accommodates emergency evacuations is agent-based or microsimulation modeling. However, current evacuation models do not adequately address individuals with disabilities in their simulated populations. This manuscript describes the BUMMPEE model, an agent-based simulation capable of classifying the built environment according to environmental characteristics and simulating a heterogeneous population according to variation in individual criteria. The method allows for simulated behaviors which more aptly represent the diversity and prevalence of disabilities in the population and their interaction with the built environment. Comparison of the results of an evacuation simulated using the BUMMPEE model is comparable to a physical evacuation with a similar population and setting. The results of the comparison indicate that the BUMMPEE model is a reasonable approach for simulating evacuations representing the diversity and prevalence of disability in the population
Thomas Hills and Peter Todd
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 11 (4) 5
Kyeywords: Mate Choice, Mate Search, Foraging, Homophily
Abstract: While many models have investigated the role of competitive mate selection processes in human marriage, few have addressed the potential for assortative processes to explain the observed demographics, as well as simultaneously investigating divorce. To explore the possibility that assortative mate selection processes may explain patterns of both marriage and divorce, we developed an agent-based model, MADAM (Marriage and Divorce Annealing Model), based on homophilic trait matching, in which individuals search for mates similar to themselves, but relax these expectations as they age. MADAM assumes individuals live in a world with N mate-relevant traits, where each individual chooses a set of k traits from those N to represent his or her identity. Individuals seek marriage partners with some number of identical traits, but over time relax their expectations for this desired threshold number of matching traits. Divorce is allowed when individuals find a partner who shares more traits with them than their current partner. With this implementation, we explored how population heterogeneity and individual differences affect population-level demographic trends, finding that increasing population heterogeneity and a reduction in the rate of relaxing expectations can both increase the mean age at first marriage. MADAM also accurately predicts demographic marriage and divorce data across cultures, with quantitatively accurate predictions for length of first marriage, likelihood of first marriage ending in divorce, and percent of population married by the end of the lifespan.
Chao Yang, Kurahashi Setsuya, Keiko Kurahashi, Isao Ono and Takao Terano
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 12 (2) 5
Kyeywords: Agent-Based Simulation, Grid Oriented Genetic Algorithm, Inverse Simulation, Family Norm, Civil Service Examination
Abstract: In this paper, following our previous work on civil service examinations in imperial China, we investigate women's role in a Chinese historical family line using an agent-based simulation (ABS) model with a grid oriented genetic algorithm (GOGA) framework. We utilize a GOGA framework, because our ABS had such large parameter spaces with real values that it required much greater computational resources. First, we studied the genealogical records. Second, based on that study, we implemented an agent-based model with the family lines branched out into two clusters to compare different family norms. Third, using an "inverse simulation" technique, we optimized the agent-based model in order to fit the simulation profiles to real profile data with real-coded GA. From these intensive experiments, we have found that (1) The combined influence of the father, uncle, mother and the aunt has important significance in maintaining a successful family norm, and (2) a particular role of the aunt to pass it on as well.
Heiko Rauhut and Marcel Junker
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 12 (3) 1
Kyeywords: Crime, Punishment, Control, Bounded Rationality, Agent-Based Simulation, Experiment, Game Theory
Abstract: Is it rational to reduce criminal activities if punishments are increased? While intuition might suggest so, game theory concludes differently. From the game theoretical perspective, inspectors anticipate the effect of increased punishments on criminal behavior and reduce their inspection activities accordingly. This implies that higher punishments reduce inspections and do not affect crime rates. We present two laboratory experiments, which challenge this perspective by demonstrating that both, criminals and inspectors, are affected by punishment levels. Thereupon, we investigate with agent-based simulations, whether models of bounded rationality can explain our empirical data. We differentiate between two kinds of bounded rationality; the first considers bounded learning from social interaction, the second bounded decision-making. Our results suggest that humans show both kinds of bounded rationality in the strategic situation of crime, control and punishment. We conclude that it is not the rationality but the bounded rationality in humans that makes punishment effective.
Tetsushi Ohdaira and Takao Terano
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 12 (4) 7
Kyeywords: Cooperation, Altruism, Agent-Based Simulation, Evolutionary Game Theory
Abstract: In the research addressing the prisoner's dilemma game, the effectiveness and accountableness of the method allowing for the emergence of cooperation is generally discussed. The most well-known solutions for this question are memory based iteration, the tag used to distinguish between defector and cooperator, the spatial structure of the game and the either direct or indirect reciprocity. We have also challenged to approach the topic from a different point of view namely that temperate acquisitiveness in decision making could be possible to achieve cooperation. It was already shown in our previous research that the exclusion of the best decision had a remarkable effect on the emergence of an almost cooperative state. In this paper, we advance the decision of our former research to become more explainable by introducing the second-best decision. If that decision is adopted, players also reach an extremely high level cooperative state in the prisoner's dilemma game and also in that of extended strategy expression. The cooperation of this extended game is facilitated only if the product of two parameters is under the criticality. In addition, the applicability of our model to the problem in the real world is discussed.
Vicenç Quera, Francesc S. Beltran and Ruth Dolado
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 13 (2) 8
Kyeywords: Flocking Behaviour; Hierarchical Leadership; Agent-Based Simulation; Social Dynamics
Abstract: We have studied how leaders emerge in a group as a consequence of interactions among its members. We propose that leaders can emerge as a consequence of a self-organized process based on local rules of dyadic interactions among individuals. Flocks are an example of self-organized behaviour in a group and properties similar to those observed in flocks might also explain some of the dynamics and organization of human groups. We developed an agent-based model that generated flocks in a virtual world and implemented it in a multi-agent simulation computer program that computed indices at each time step of the simulation to quantify the degree to which a group moved in a coordinated way (index of flocking behaviour) and the degree to which specific individuals led the group (index of hierarchical leadership). We ran several series of simulations in order to test our model and determine how these indices behaved under specific agent and world conditions. We identified the agent, world property, and model parameters that made stable, compact flocks emerge, and explored possible environmental properties that predicted the probability of becoming a leader.
Adam Zagorecki, Kilkon Ko and Louise K. Comfort
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 13 (3) 3
Kyeywords: Agent-Based Simulation, Emergency Management, Network Evolution, Performance
Abstract: Achieving efficiency in coordinated action in rapidly changing environments has challenged both researchers and practitioners. Emergency events require both rapid response and effective coordination among participating organizations. We created a simulated operations environment using agent-based modeling to test the efficiency of six different organizational designs that varied the exercise of authority, degree of uncertainty, and access to information. Efficiency is measured in terms of response time, identifying time as the most valuable resource in emergency response. Our findings show that, contrary to dominant organizational patterns of hierarchical authority that limit communication among members via strict reporting rules, any communication among members increases the efficiency of organizations operating in uncertain environments. We further found that a smaller component of highly interconnected, self adapting agents emerges over time to support the organization\'s adaptation in changing conditions. In uncertain environments, heterogeneous agents prove more efficient in sharing information that guides coordination than homogeneous agents.
Tony Bastin Roy Savarimuthu, Stephen Cranefield, Maryam A. Purvis and Martin K. Purvis
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 13 (4) 3
Kyeywords: Norms, Social Norms, Obligations, Norm Identification, Agent-Based Simulation, Simulation of Norms, Artificial Societies, Normative Multi-Agent Systems (NorMAS)
Abstract: Most works on norms have investigated how norms are regulated using institutional mechanisms. Very few works have focused on how an agent may infer the norms of a society without the norm being explicitly given to the agent. This paper describes a mechanism for identifying one type of norm, an obligation norm. The Obligation Norm Inference (ONI) algorithm described in this paper makes use of an association rule mining approach to identify obligation norms. Using agent based simulation of a virtual restaurant we demonstrate how an agent can identify the tipping norm. The experiments that we have conducted demonstrate that an agent in the system is able to add, remove and modify norms dynamically. An agent can also flexibly modify the parameters of the system based on whether it is successful in identifying a norm.
Christopher D. Hollander and Annie S. Wu
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 14 (2) 6
Kyeywords: Norms, Normative Agents, Agents, Agent-Based System, Agent-Based Simulation, Agent-Based Modeling
Abstract: Recent years have seen an increase in the application of ideas from the social sciences to computational systems. Nowhere has this been more pronounced than in the domain of multiagent systems. Because multiagent systems are composed of multiple individual agents interacting with each other many parallels can be drawn to human and animal societies. One of the main challenges currently faced in multiagent systems research is that of social control. In particular, how can open multiagent systems be configured and organized given their constantly changing structure? One leading solution is to employ the use of social norms. In human societies, social norms are essential to regulation, coordination, and cooperation. The current trend of thinking is that these same principles can be applied to agent societies, of which multiagent systems are one type. In this article, we provide an introduction to and present a holistic viewpoint of the state of normative computing (computational solutions that employ ideas based on social norms.) To accomplish this, we (1) introduce social norms and their application to agent-based systems; (2) identify and describe a normative process abstracted from the existing research; and (3) discuss future directions for research in normative multiagent computing. The intent of this paper is to introduce new researchers to the ideas that underlie normative computing and survey the existing state of the art, as well as provide direction for future research.
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 14 (3) 4
Kyeywords: Corporate Social Responsibility, Agent-Based Simulation, Sustainability, Multiple Sector Model, Micro Economy
Abstract: An agent-based model of firms and their stakeholders' economic actions was used to test the theoretical feasibility of sustainable corporate social responsibility activities. Corporate social responsibility has become important to many firms, but CSR activities tend to get less attention during busts than during boom times. The hypothesis tested is that the CSR activities of a firm are more economically rational if the economic actions of its stakeholders reflect the firm's level of CSR. Our model focuses on three types of stakeholders: workers, consumers, and shareholders. First, we construct a uniform framework based on a microeconomic foundation that includes these stakeholders and the corresponding firms. Then, we formulate parameters for CSR in this framework. Our aim is to identify the conditions under which every type of stakeholder derives benefits from a firm's CSR activities. We simulated our model with heterogeneous agents by computer using several scenarios. For each one, the simulation was run 100 times with different random seeds. We first simulated the homogeneous version discussed above to verify the concept of our model. Next, we simulated the case in which workers had heterogeneous abilities, the firms had cost for CSR activities, and the workers, consumers, and shareholders had zero CSR awareness. We tested the robustness of our simulation results by using sensitivity analysis. Specifically, we investigated the conditions for the pecuniary advantage of CSR activities and effects offsetting benefits of CSR activities. Finally, we developed a new model installed bounded rational and simulated. The results show that the economic actions of stakeholders during boom periods greatly affect the sustainability of CSR activities during slow periods. This insight should lead to a feasible and effective prescription for sustainable CSR activities.
Christophe Le Page, Nicolas Becu, Pierre Bommel and François Bousquet
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 15 (1) 10
Kyeywords: Agent-Based Simulation, Smalltalk, Cormas, Multi-Agent System, Generic Simulation Platform, Renewable Natural Resource Management, Community of Practice, Companion Modeling
Abstract: This paper describes how the Cormas platform has been used for 12 years as an artefact to foster learning about agent-based simulation for renewable resource management. Among the existing generic agent-based simulation platforms, Cormas occupies a tiny, yet lively, place. Thanks to regular training sessions and an electronic forum, a community of users has been gradually established that has enabled a sharing of ideas, practices and knowledge, and the emergence of a genuine community of practice whose members are particularly interested in participatory agent-based simulation.
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 15 (3) 3
Kyeywords: Prisoner''s Dilemma Game, Complex Network, Adaptive Expectation, Agent-Based Simulation
Abstract: In the spatial prisoner's dilemma game, an agent's strategy choice depends upon the strategies he expects his neighboring agents to adopt. Yet, the expectation of agents in the games has not been studied seriously by the researchers of games in complex networks. The present paper studies the effect of the agents' adaptive expectation on cooperation emergence in the prisoner's dilemma game in complex networks from an agent-based approach. Simulation results show that the agents' adaptive expectation will favor the emergence of cooperation. However, due to agents' adaptive behavior, agents' initial expectation level does not greatly affect the cooperation frequency in the experiments. Simulation results also show that the agents' expectation adjustment speed significantly affects the cooperation frequency. In addition, the initial number of cooperation agents on the network is not a critical factor in the simulations. However, together with a bigger defection temptation, a larger neighborhood size will produce greater cooperation frequency fluctuations in a Barabási and Albert (BA) network, a feature different from that of Watts and Strogatz (WS) small world networks, which can be explained by their different networks degree distributions. Simulation results show that the cooperation frequency oscillating on the WS network is much smaller than that of the BA networks when defection temptation becomes larger. This research demonstrates that agent's adaptive expectation plays an important role in cooperation emergence on complex networks and it deserves more attentions.
Michael Meadows and Dave Cliff
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 15 (4) 4
Kyeywords: Relative Agreement Model, Opinion Dynamics, Agent-Based Simulation
Abstract: We present a brief history of models of opinion dynamics in groups of agents, and summarise work from the creation of the Bounded Confidence model (Krause 2000; Hegselmann and Krause 2002) through to the more recent development of the Relative Agreement (RA) model (Deffuant et al. 2002; Deffuant 2006). In the RA model, randomly-selected pairs of agents interact, expressing their opinions and their confidence in those opinions; and each agent then updates their own opinion on the basis of the new information. The two seminal RA papers (Deffuant et al. 2002, Deffuant 2006), both published in JASSS, each present simulation results from the RA model that we have attempted to independently replicate. We have surveyed over 150 papers that cite Deffuant et al. 2002, yet have found no prior independent replications of the key empirical results for the RA model presented in the 2002 paper. We have each written a separate implementation of the RA model (one in Java, one in Python, both published in full as appendices to this paper) which we therefore believe to be the first independent replications of the RA model as published in the 2002 JASSS paper. We find that both our implementations of the RA model generate results that are in good agreement with each other, but both of which differ very significantly from those presented by Deffuant et al.. Our results are presented along with an analysis and discussion where we argue from first principles that our results are more plausible than those published in the 2002 JASSS paper. We close with discussion of the relevance of this model, along with future applicability.
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 16 (4) 14
Kyeywords: Social Emotions, Norms, Prisoner, Spatial Interaction Structures, Segregation, Agent-Based Simulation
Abstract: Observations in experiments show that players in a prisoner's dilemma may adhere more or less to a cooperative norm. Adherence is defined by the intensity of pro-social emotions, like guilt, of deviating from the norm. Players consider also payoffs from defection as a motive to deviate. By combining both incentives, the modeling may explain conditional cooperation and the existence of polymorphic equilibria in which cooperators and defectors coexist. We then show by the use of simulations, that local interaction structures may produce segregation and the appearance of cooperative zones under these conditions.
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 17 (1) 12
Kyeywords: Mate Choice, Mate Search, Simple Heuristics, Agent-Based Simulation, Behavioral Stability, Equilibrium Strategies
Abstract: Human mate choice is a boundedly rational process where individuals search for their mates without appealing to optimization techniques due to informational, computational and time constraints. A seminal work by Todd and Miller (1999) models this search process using simple heuristics, i.e. decision rules that adjust individuals' aspiration levels adaptively. To identify the best heuristic among a number of alternatives, they consider fixed measures of success. In this paper, we deal with the same identification problem by examining whether these heuristics would be favored by behavioral selection. To this aim, we extend the two-phase search model of Todd and Miller (1999) to a behavioral (strategic-form) game in which each individual in the population is a distinct player, each player's strategy space contains the same four heuristics (adjustment rules), and the payoff of each player is measured by the likelihood of his/her mating. For this game, we ask whether any strategy profile at which the whole population plays the same heuristic can be behaviorally stable with respect to the Nash equilibrium concept. Our simulations show that the unanimous use of the Take the Next Best Rule by the whole population never becomes an equilibrium in the simulation range of adolescence lengths. While the Adjust Relative Rule is found to be behaviorally stable for a wide part of the simulation range, especially for medium to high adolescence lengths, the rules Adjust Up/Down and Adjust Relative/2 are favored by behavioral selection for a small part of the simulation range and only when the adolescence is long and short, respectively. We make the final evaluation of the four heuristics with respect to a new success measure that integrates a behavioral stability metric proposed in this paper with two metrics of Todd and Miller (1999), namely the likelihood and the assortativeness of the mating generated by the heuristic in use.
Alessandro Pluchino, Cesare Garofalo, Giuseppe Inturri, Andrea Rapisarda and Matteo Ignaccolo
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 17 (1) 16
Kyeywords: Agent-Based Simulations, Carrying Capacity, Pedestrian Dynamics, Evacuation Dynamics
Abstract: In order to analyse the behaviour of pedestrians at the very fine scale, while moving along the streets, in open spaces or inside a building, simulation modelling becomes an essential tool. In these spatial environments, simulation requires the ability to model the local dynamics of individual decision making and behaviour, which is strongly affected by the geometry, social preferences, local and collective behaviour of other individuals. The dy-namics of people visiting and evacuating a museum offers an excellent case study along this line. In this paper we present an agent-based simulation of the Castello Ursino museum in Catania (Italy), evaluating its carrying capacity in terms of both satisfaction of the visitors in regime of non-emergency dynamics and their safety under alarm conditions.
Hong Zhang and Yang Li
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 17 (1) 18
Kyeywords: Resale Housing Market, Search Behavior, Search Model, Agent-Based Simulation, Sensitivity Analysis
Abstract: In the paradigm of the search theory, we established the search model applicable to the characteristics of China's resale housing market, by modeling the search behavior for buyer and seller, respectively. Setting the parameters based on the Beijing housing market survey in August 2012, we implemented agent-based simulation to study the dynamics of the search behavior measured by search intensity and search time. Sensitivity test was also used to analyze the determinants of the search behavior for trading agents. The simulation results validate the idiosyncratic feature of the agent's search behavior, which is consistent with theoretical analysis. The increase of matching efficiency promotes the agents' search intensities, but the higher unit search cost can reduce the agents' search intensities. The buyer's search behavior is more sensitive to the change in the market tightness ratio. Brokerage service lowers the transaction price and lessens the agents' search intensities. Sensitivity test further reveals that, the matching efficiency and the market tightness ratio play very important role in improving housing market liquidity. The changes in the search cost and the broker commission rate can reduce the agents' search intensities significantly and there are critical turning points at which the abrupt change occurs.
Pablo Lucas, Angela C.M. de Oliveira and Sheheryar Banuri
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 17 (3) 5
Kyeywords: Social Preferences, Group Composition, Beliefs, Agent-Based Simulation
Abstract: Behavioural economics highlights the role of social preferences in economic decisions. Further, populations are heterogeneous, suggesting that the composition of social preference types within a group may impact the ability to sustain voluntary public goods contributions. We conduct agent-based simulations of contributions in a public goods game, varying group composition and the weight individuals place on their beliefs versus their underlying social preference type. We then examine the effect of each of these factors on contributions. We find that social preference heterogeneity negatively impacts provision over a wide range of the parameter space, even controlling for the share of types in a group.
Chung-Yuan Huang and Tzai-Hung Wen
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 17 (3) 8
Kyeywords: Social Influence, Private Acceptance, Public Compliance, Theory of Reasoned Action, Cognitive Dissonance Theory, Agent-Based Simulation
Abstract: Pluralistic ignorance, a well-documented socio-psychological conformity phenomenon, involves discrepancies between private attitude and public opinion in certain social contexts. However, continuous opinion dynamics models based on a bounded confidence assumption fail to accurately model pluralistic ignorance because they do not address scenarios in which non-conformists do not need to worry about holding and expressing conflicting opinions. Such scenarios reduce the power of continuous opinion dynamics models to explain why certain groups doubt or change their opinions in response to minority views. To simulate the effects of (a) private acceptance of informational social influence and (b) public compliance with normative social influence on pluralistic ignorance and minority influences, we have created an agent-based simulation model in which attitude and opinion respectively represent an agent's private and expressed thoughts. Results from a series of simulation experiments indicate model validity equal to or exceeding those of existing opinion dynamics models that are also based on the bounded confidence assumption, but with different dynamics and outcomes in terms of collective opinion and attitude. The results also support the use of our proposed model for computational social psychology applications.
SeHoon Lee, Jeong Hee Hong, Jang Won Bae and Il-Chul Moon
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 18 (2) 5
Kyeywords: Agent-Based Simulation, Discrete Event Model, Urban Design, Population Modeling, Urban Simulator
Abstract: To reduce overpopulation around Seoul, Korea, the government implemented a relocation policy of public officers by moving the government complex. This implies that there will be a negative impact on the suburban area that originally hosted the complex, but we do not know the magnitude of the impact. Therefore, this paper presents a micro-level estimation of the impact on the city commerce with an agent-based model. This model is calibrated by the micro-level population census data, the time-use data, and the geographic data. Agent behavior is formally specified to illustrate the daily activities of diverse population types, and particularly the model observes how many agents pass by commercial buildings of interest. With the described model, we performed a virtual experiment that examines the strengths of factors in negatively influencing the city commerce. After the experiment, we statistically validated the model with the survey data from the real world, which resulted in relatively high correlation between the real world and the simulations.
Woo-Seop Yun, Il-Chul Moon and Tae-Eog Lee
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 18 (4) 10
Kyeywords: Command and Control (C2), Combat Effectiveness, Infantry Company Engagement, Agent-Based Simulation
Abstract: Modelling command and control (C2) is regarded as a difficult task because of the complexity of the decision-making required by individuals in combat. Despite the difficulties, C2 modelling is frequently used for high echelon units, i.e. battalion, division and above. This paper extends these models to the lowest army unit: the infantry company. Previous studies have modelled this particular unit as either an abstract entity or a detailed behaviour model without C2. Our model includes C2 in the models to determine the most critical tasks at company level C2 because this information could direct company commanders to engage in more important operational tasks. Our analysis is based on agent-based modelling and the virtual experiment framework. The overall model includes operational details as discrete event models and soldier behaviour as behavioural models. Our analytical results enable us to identify the key C2 tasks of company commanders and the changes in the importance of various operational environments.
Juliette Rouchier and Emily Tanimura
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 19 (2) 7
Kyeywords: Collective Learning, Agent-Based Simulation, M2M, Influence Model, Analytical Model, Over-Confidence
Abstract: In this paper, we describe a process of validation for an already published model, which relies on the M2M paradigm of work. The initial model showed that over-confident agents, which refuse to communicate with agents whose beliefs differ, disturb collective learning within a population. We produce an analytical model based on probabilistic analysis, that enables us to explain better the process at stake in our first model, and demonstrates that this process is indeed converging. To make sure that the convergence time is meaningful for our question (not just for an infinite number of agents living for an infinite time), we use the analytical model to produce very simple simulations and assess that the result holds in finite contexts.
Viktoria Spaiser and David J. T. Sumpter
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 19 (3) 1
Kyeywords: Agent-Based Simulation, Human Development Sequence Theory, Democratisation, Mathematical Modeling, Data Analysis, Inequality
Abstract: Agent-based models and computer simulations are promising tools for studying emergent macro-phenomena. We apply an agent-based approach in combination with data analysis to investigate the human development sequence (HDS) theory developed by Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel. Although the HDS theory is supported by correlational evidence, the sequence of economic growth, democracy and emancipation stated by the theory is not entirely consistent with data. We use an agent-based model to make quantitative predictions about several different micro-level mechanisms. Comparison to data allows us to identify important inconsistencies between HDS and the data, and propose revised agent-based models that modify the theory. Our results indicate the importance of elites and economic inequality in explaining the data available on democratisation.
Haiming Liang, Yucheng Dong and Congcong Li
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 19 (4) 1
Kyeywords: Opinion Formation, Uncertain Opinions, Uncertainty Tolerance, Communication Regime, Agent-Based Simulation
Abstract: Opinion formation describes the dynamics of opinions in a group of interaction agents and is a powerful tool for predicting the evolution and diffusion of the opinions. The existing opinion formation studies assume that the agents express their opinions by using the exact number, i.e., the exact opinions. However, when people express their opinions, sentiments, and support emotions regarding different issues, such as politics, products, and events, they often cannot provide the exact opinions but express uncertain opinions. Furthermore, due to the differences in culture backgrounds and characters of agents, people who encounter uncertain opinions often show different uncertainty tolerances. The goal of this study is to investigate the dynamics of uncertain opinion formation in the framework of bounded confidence. By taking different uncertain opinions and different uncertainty tolerances into account, we use an agent-based simulation to investigate the influences of uncertain opinions in opinion formation from two aspects: the ratios of the agents that express uncertain opinions and the widths of the uncertain opinions, and also provide the explanations of the observations obtained.
Fujio Toriumi, Hitoshi Yamamoto and Isamu Okada
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 19 (4) 6
Kyeywords: Groupware, Agent-Based Simulation, Meta-Sanction Game, Public Good Games,
Abstract: Groupware is an effective form of media for knowledge sharing and active open communication. One remaining important issue is how to design groupware in which vast amounts of beneficial content are provided and active discussion is facilitated. The behavior of information in such a medium resembles public-goods games because users voluntarily post beneficial information that creates media values. Many studies on such games have shown the effects of rewards or punishments in promoting cooperative behavior. In this paper, we show what types of incentive systems of rewards and punishments promote and maintain effective information behaviors or cooperative regimes in actual groupware. Our agent-based simulation demonstrates that a meta-reward system in which rewarders can gain other benefits for their own reward actions will probably encourage cooperation. Counterintuitively, our simulation also demonstrates that a system that applies sanctioning functions does not necessarily promote cooperation. Interestingly, a first-order reward system without any second-order incentives impedes the formation of cooperative regimes, while this is not the case with first-order punishment systems without second-order incentives. These findings may elucidate how successful groupware operates.
Ross Gore, Saikou Diallo, Christopher Lynch and Jose Padilla
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 20 (1) 4
Kyeywords: Metamodel, Agent-Based Simulation, Statistical Modeling, Predicates, Validation
Abstract: Metamodeling refers to modeling a model. There are two metamodeling approaches for ABMs: (1) top-down and (2) bottom-up. The top down approach enables users to decompose high-level mental models into behaviors and interactions of agents. In contrast, the bottom-up approach constructs a relatively small, simple model that approximates the structure and outcomes of a dataset gathered from the runs of an ABM. The bottom-up metamodel makes behavior of the ABM comprehensible and exploratory analyses feasible. For most users the construction of a bottom-up metamodel entails: (1) creating an experimental design, (2) running the simulation for all cases specified by the design, (3) collecting the inputs and output in a dataset and (4) applying first-order regression analysis to find a model that effectively estimates the output. Unfortunately, the sums of input variables employed by first-order regression analysis give the impression that one can compensate for one component of the system by improving some other component even if such substitution is inadequate or invalid. As a result the metamodel can be misleading. We address these deficiencies with an approach that: (1) automatically generates Boolean conditions that highlight when substitutions and tradeoffs among variables are valid and (2) augments the bottom-up metamodel with the conditions to improve validity and accuracy. We evaluate our approach using several established agent-based simulations.
Annalisa Fabretti and Stefano Herzel
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 20 (1) 7
Kyeywords: Incentives, Agent-Based Simulations, Market Instability, Price Convergence, Order Book Analysis
Abstract: We studied the influence of convex incentives, e.g. option-like compensations, on the behavior of financial markets. Such incentives, usually offered to portfolio managers, have been often considered a potential source of market instability. We built an agent-based model of a double-auction market where some of the agents are endowed with convex contracts. We show that these contracts encourage traders to buy more aggressively, increasing total demand and market prices. Our analysis suggests that financial markets with many managers with convex contracts are more likely to be more unstable and less efficient.
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 20 (3) 1
Kyeywords: Reinforcement Learning, Agent-Based Simulation, N-Way Coordination Game, Roth-Erev Model
Abstract: In line with previous research, the evolution of social conventions is explored by n-way coordination games. A convention is said to be established if decisions of all actors synchronise over time. In contrast to the earlier studies, an empirically well-grounded process of reinforcement learning is used as behavioural assumption. The model is called melioration learning. It is shown by agent-based simulations that melioration enables actors to establish a convention. Besides the payoffs of the coordination game, the network structure of interactions affects actors' ability to coordinate their choices and the speed of convergence. The results of melioration learning are compared to predictions of the Roth-Erev model.
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 20 (3) 5
Kyeywords: Social Norms, Agent-Based Simulation, Social Influence, Pluralistic Ignorance
Abstract: Unpopular norms are a pervasive and puzzling phenomenon of the social world. They are norms that are established and maintained against the interest of their subjects, but without external coercion. Pluralistic ignorance has been suggested as a potential explanation of unpopular norms. What is currently lacking is a formal model of this process that can be meaningfully compared with empirically known properties of pluralistic ignorance. An agent-based model of a growing social network can reproduce the most significant qualitative features, viz a deviation of the perceived norm from the preference distribution and the dynamical lag of the former behind the latter. In addition, the model is extended with a central influence representing for example central media or a powerful political elite.
Zhaogang Ding, Yucheng Dong, Haiming Liang and Francisco Chiclana
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 20 (4) 6
Kyeywords: Opinion Dynamics, Asynchronism, Bounded Confidence, Agent-Based Simulation
Abstract: Nowadays, about half of the world population can receive information and exchange opinions in online environments (e.g. the Internet), while the other half do so offline (e.g. face to face). The speed at which information is received and opinions are exchanged in online environment is much faster than offline. To model this phenomenon, in this paper we consider online and offline as two subsystems in opinion dynamics and assume asynchronization when agents in these two subsystems update their opinions. We unfold that asynchronization has a strong impact on the steady-state time of the opinion dynamics, the opinion clusters and the interactions between online and offline subsystems. Furthermore, these effects are often enhanced the larger the size of the online subsystem is.
Davide Secchi and Stephen J. Cowley
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 21 (1) 13
Kyeywords: Organizational Cognition, Distributed Cognition, E-Cognition, Impact Factor, Perceived Scientific Value, Social Organizing, Agent-Based Simulation Modeling
Abstract: This article offers an alternative perspective on organizational cognition based on e-cognition whereby appeal to systemic cognition replaces the traditional computational model of the mind that is still extremely popular in organizational research. It uses information processing, not to explore inner processes, but as the basis for pursuing organizational matters. To develop a theory of organizational cognition, the current work presents an agent-based simulation model based on the case of how individual perception of scientific value is affected by and affects organizational intelligence units' (e.g., research groups', departmental) framing of the notorious impact factor. Results show that organizational cognition cannot be described without an intermediate meso scale – called here social organizing – that both filters and enables the many kinds of socially enabled perception, action and behavior that are so characteristic of human cognition.
Engi Amin, Mohamed Abouelela and Amal Soliman
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 21 (1) 3
Kyeywords: Agent-Based Simulation, Cooperation, Public Goods Game, Laboratory Experiment, Social Preferences
Abstract: This paper examines the role of heterogeneous agents in the study of voluntary contributions to public goods. A human-subject experiment was conducted to classify agent types and determine their effects on contribution levels. Data from the experiment was used to build and calibrate an agent-based simulation model. The simulations display how different compositions of agent preference types affect the contribution levels. Findings indicate that the heterogeneity of cooperative preferences is an important determinant of a population’s contribution pattern.
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 21 (2) 6
Kyeywords: Agent-Based Simulation, Complexity, Coordination, Emergence, Reinforcement Learning, Task Formation
Abstract: This paper studies the emergence of task formation under conditions of limited knowledge about the complexity of the problem to be solved by an organization. Task formation is a key issue in organizational theory and the emergence of task formation is of particular interest when the complexity of the overall problem to be solved is not known in advance, since, for example, an organization is newly founded or has gone through an external shock. The paper employs an agent-based simulation based on the framework of NK fitness landscapes and controls for different levels of task complexity and for different coordination modes. In the simulations, artificial organizations are observed while searching for higher levels of organizational performance by two intertwined adaptive processes: short-termed search for superior solutions to the organizations' task and, in mid term, learning-based adaptation of task formation. The results suggest that the emerging task formations vary with the complexity of the underlying problem and, thereby, the balance between units' scope of competence and the organizational capacity for problem-solving is affected. For decomposable problems, task formations emerge which reflect the nature of the underlying problem; for non-decomposable structures, task formations with a broader scope of units' competence emerge. Furthermore, results indicate that, particularly for non-decomposable problems, the coordination mode employed in an organization subtly interferes with the emergence of task formation.
Barbara Llacay and Gilbert Peffer
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 22 (1) 6
Kyeywords: Agent-Based Simulation, Financial Markets, Financial Stability, Value-At-Risk, Countercyclical Regulation, Basel III
Abstract: The financial system is inherently procyclical, as it amplifies the course of economic cycles, and precisely one of the factors that has been suggested to exacerbate this procyclicality is the Basel regulation on capital requirements. After the recent credit crisis, international regulators have turned their eyes to countercyclical regulation as a solution to avoid similar episodes in the future. Countercyclical regulation aims at preventing excessive risk taking during booms to reduce the impact of losses suffered during recessions, for example increasing the capital requirements during the good times to improve the resilience of financial institutions at the downturn. The Basel Committee has already moved forward towards the adoption of countercyclical measures on a global scale: the Basel III Accord, published in December 2010, revises considerably the capital requirement rules to reduce their procyclicality. These new countercyclical measures will not be completely implemented until 2019, so their impact cannot be evaluated yet, and it is a crucial question whether they will be effective in reducing procyclicality and the appearance of crisis episodes such as the one experienced in 2007-08. For this reason, we present in this article an agent-based model aimed at analysing the effect of two countercyclical mechanisms introduced in Basel III: the countercyclical buffer and the stressed VaR. In particular, we focus on the impact of these mechanisms on the procyclicality induced by market risk requirements and, more specifically, by value-at-risk models, as it is a issue of crucial importance that has received scant attention in the modeling literature. The simulation results suggest that the adoption of both of these countercyclical measures improves market stability and reduces the emergence of crisis episodes.
Patrick Taillandier, Arnaud Grignard, Nicolas Marilleau, Damien Philippon, Quang-Nghi Huynh, Benoit Gaudou and Alexis Drogoul
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 22 (2) 3
Kyeywords: Agent-Based Simulation, Participatory Modeling, Participatory Simulation, Serious Game
Abstract: In recent years, agent-based simulation has become an important tool to study complex systems. However, the models produced are rarely used for decision-making support because stakeholders are often not involved in the modeling and simulation processes. Indeed, if several tools dedicated to participatory modeling and simulation exist, they are limited to the design of simple - KISS - models, which limit their potential impact. In this article, we present the participatory tools integrated within the GAMA modeling and simulation platform. These tools, which take advantage of the GAMA platform concerning the definition of rich - KIDS - models, allows to build models graphically and develop distributed serious games in a simple way. Several application examples illustrate their use and potential.
Jean-Daniel Kant, Gérard Ballot and Olivier Goudet
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 23 (4) 4
Kyeywords: Agent-Based Simulation, Dual Labor Markets, Anticipations, Bounded Rationality, Policy Evaluation
Abstract: In this paper, we provide an overview of the WorkSim model, an agent-based framework designed to study labor markets. The first objective of this model was to reproduce, within rigorous stock-flow accounting, the gross flows of individuals between important work-states: i.e., employment (distinguishing fixed term contracts and open-ended contracts), unemployment and inactivity. French legal institutions of the labor market are modelled in some detail and constrain the decisions of the agents on job flows and worker flows. Firms and individuals are heterogeneous and all decisions are taken on the basis of bounded rationality, yet employers as well as workers form imperfect anticipations. One important theoretical novelty of the model is that we consider multi-job firms and shocks on the individual demand of the firms. Employers consider anticipated shocks when they decide on the types of contract. Once the model was calibrated, the secondary objective was to characterize the nature of the labor market under study, and notably the differentiated roles of the two types of contracts and their impact on unemployment. This is achieved, first by examining the patterns of flows and stocks of labor and secondly by sensitivity experiments, modifying certain exogenous parameters and variables such as total demand. We then used the model as a tool for experimenting labor market policies, including changes in the labor law in France.
Patrick Taillandier, Nicolas Salliou and Rallou Thomopoulos
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 24 (2) 6
Kyeywords: Opinion Dynamics, Agent-Based Simulation, Argumentation Framework, Vegetarian Diets
Abstract: This paper introduces a generic agent-based model simulating the exchange and the diffusion of pro and con arguments. It is applied to the case of the diffusion of vegetarian diets in the context of a potential emergence of a second nutrition transition. To this day, agent-based simulation has been extensively used to study opinion dynamics. However, the vast majority of existing models have been limited to extremely abstract and simplified representations of the diffusion process. These simplifications impairs the realism of the simulations and disables the understanding of the reasons for the shift of an actor's opinion. The generic model presented here explicitly represents exchanges of arguments between actors in the context of an opinion dynamic model. In particular, the inner attitude towards an opinion of each agent is formalized as an argumentation graph and each agent can share arguments with other agents. Simulation experiments show that introducing attacks between arguments and a limitation of the number of arguments mobilized by agents has a strong impact on the evolution of the agents' opinion. We also highlight that when a new argument is introduced into the system, the quantity and the profile of the agents receiving the new argument will impact the evolution of the overall opinion. Finally, the application of this model to vegetarian diet adoption seems consistent with historical food behaviour dynamics observed during crises.
Hendrik Nunner, Wojtek Przepiorka and Chris Janssen
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 25 (1) 7
Kyeywords: Conventions, Repeated Games, Volunteer’s Dilemma, Agent-Based Simulation, Reinforcement Learning, Cognitive Modeling
Abstract: We use reinforcement learning models to investigate the role of cognitive mechanisms in the emergence of conventions in the repeated volunteer’s dilemma (VOD). The VOD is a multi-person, binary choice collective goods game in which the contribution of only one individual is necessary and sufficient to produce a benefit for the entire group. Behavioral experiments show that in the symmetric VOD, where all group members have the same costs of volunteering, a turn-taking convention emerges, whereas in the asymmetric VOD, where one “strong” group member has lower costs of volunteering, a solitary-volunteering convention emerges with the strong member volunteering most of the time. We compare three different classes of reinforcement learning models in their ability to replicate these empirical findings. Our results confirm that reinforcement learning models can provide a parsimonious account of how humans tacitly agree on one course of action when encountering each other repeatedly in the same interaction situation. We find that considering contextual clues (i.e., reward structures) for strategy design (i.e., sequences of actions) and strategy selection (i.e., favoring equal distribution of costs) facilitate coordination when optima are less salient. Furthermore, our models produce better fits with the empirical data when agents act myopically (favoring current over expected future rewards) and the rewards for adhering to conventions are not delayed.
Kevin Chapuis, Patrick Taillandier and Alexis Drogoul
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 25 (2) 6
Kyeywords: Synthetic Population, Agent-Based Simulation, Model Initialisation, Data-Driven Social Simulation
Abstract: To build realistic models of social systems, designers of agent-based models tend to incorporate a considerable amount of data, which influence the model outcomes. Data concerning the attributes of social agents, which compose synthetic populations, are particularly important but usually difficult to collect and therefore use in simulations. In this paper, we have reviewed state of the art methodologies and theories for building realistic synthetic populations for agent-based simulation models and practices in social simulations. We also highlight the discrepancies between theory and practice and outline the challenges in bridging this gap through a quantitative and narrative review of work published in JASSS between 2011 and 2021. Finally, we present several recommendations that could help modellers adopt best practices for synthetic population generation.
Daniele Baccega, Simone Pernice, Pietro Terna, Paolo Castagno, Giovenale Moirano, Lorenzo Richiardi, Matteo Sereno, Sergio Rabellino, Milena Maria Maule and Marco Beccuti
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 25 (3) 2
Kyeywords: Agent-Based Simulation, SARS-CoV-2, Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions, Surveillance Testing, School
Abstract: Many governments enforced physical distancing measures during the COVID-19 pandemic to avoid the collapse of often fragile and overloaded health care systems. Following the physical distancing measures, school closures seemed unavoidable to keep the transmission of the pathogen under control, given the potentially high-risk of these environments. Nevertheless, closing schools was considered an extreme and the last resort of governments, and so various non-pharmaceutical interventions in schools were implemented to reduce the risk of transmission. By means of an agent-based model, we studied the efficacy of active surveillance strategies in the school environment. Simulations settings provided hypothetical although realistic scenarios which allowed us to identify the most suitable control strategy to avoid massive school closures while adapting to contagion dynamics. Reducing risk by means of public policies explored in our study is essential for both health authorities and school administrators.