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(16 articles matched your search)

Growing Models from the Bottom Up. an Evaluation-Based Incremental Modelling Method (EBIMM) Applied to the Simulation of Systems of Cities
By: Clémentine Cottineau, Paul Chapron, Romain Reuillon, Volume 18 (4)
Abstract: This paper presents an incremental method of parsimonious modelling using intensive and quantitative evaluation. It is applied to a research question in urban geography, namely how well a simple and generic model of a system of cities can reproduce the evolution of Soviet urbanisation. We compared the ability of two models with different levels of complexity to satisfy goals at two levels. The macro-goal is to simulate the evolution of the system’s hierarchical structure. The micro-goal is to simulate its micro-dynamics in a realistic way. The evaluation of the models is based on empirical ...

The Complexities of Agent-Based Modeling Output Analysis
By: Ju-Sung Lee, Tatiana Filatova, Arika Ligmann-Zielinska, Behrooz Hassani-Mahmooei, Forrest Stonedahl, Iris Lorscheid, Alexey Voinov, J. Gareth Polhill, Zhanli Sun, Dawn C. Parker, Volume 18 (4)
Abstract: The proliferation of agent-based models (ABMs) in recent decades has motivated model practitioners to improve the transparency, replicability, and trust in results derived from ABMs. The complexity of ABMs has risen in stride with advances in computing power and resources, resulting in larger models with complex interactions and learning and whose outputs are often high-dimensional and require sophisticated analytical approaches. Similarly, the increasing use of data and dynamics in ABMs has further enhanced the complexity of their outputs. In this article, we offer an overview of the state-of ...

Recent Development of Social Simulation as Reflected in JASSS Between 2008 and 2014: A Citation and Co-Citation Analysis
By: Jonas Hauke, Iris Lorscheid, Matthias Meyer, Volume 20 (1)
Abstract: The research field of social simulation comprises many topics and research directions. A previous study about the early years indicated that the community has evolved into a differentiated discipline. This paper investigates the recent development of social simulation as reflected in Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS) publications from 2008 to 2014. By using citation analysis, we identify the most influential publications and study the characteristics of citations. Additionally, we analyze the development of the field with respect to research topics and their structu ...

Improving Execution Speed of Models Implemented in NetLogo
By: Steven F. Railsback, Daniel Ayllón, Uta Berger, Volker Grimm, Steven Lytinen, Colin Sheppard, Jan Thiele, Volume 20 (1)
Abstract: NetLogo has become a standard platform for agent-based simulation, yet there appears to be widespread belief that it is not suitable for large and complex models due to slow execution. Our experience does not support that belief. NetLogo programs often do run very slowly when written to minimize code length and maximize clarity, but relatively simple and easily tested changes can almost always produce major increases in execution speed. We recommend a five-step process for quantifying execution speed, identifying slow parts of code, and writing faster code. Avoiding or improving agent filterin ...

Agent-Based Modelling of Social-Ecological Systems: Achievements, Challenges, and a Way Forward
By: Jule Thober, Birgit Müller, Jürgen Groeneveld, Volker Grimm, Volume 20 (2)
Abstract: Understanding social-ecological systems (SES) is crucial to supporting the sustainable management of resources. Agent-based modelling is a valuable tool to achieve this because it can represent the behaviour and interactions of organisms, human actors and institutions. Agent-based models (ABMs) have therefore already been widely used to study SES. However, ABMs of SES are by their very nature complex. They are therefore difficult to parameterize and analyse, which can limit their usefulness. It is time to critically reflect upon the current state-of-the-art to evaluate to what degree the poten ...

Responsiveness of Mining Community Acceptance Model to Key Parameter Changes
By: Mark Kofi Boateng, Kwame Awuah-Offei, Volume 20 (3)
Abstract: The mining industry has difficulties predicting changes in the level of community acceptance of its projects over time. These changes are due to changes in the society and individual perceptions around these mines as a result of the mines’ environmental and social impacts. Agent-based modeling can be used to facilitate better understanding of how community acceptance changes with changing mine environmental impacts. This work investigates the sensitivity of an agent-based model (ABM) for predicting changes in community acceptance of a mining project due to information diffusion to key input ...

Integrating Global Sensitivity Approaches to Deconstruct Spatial and Temporal Sensitivities of Complex Spatial Agent-Based Models
By: Nicholas Magliocca, Virginia McConnell, Margaret Walls, Volume 21 (1)
Abstract: Spatial agent-based models (ABMs) can be powerful tools for understanding individual level decision-making. However, in an attempt to represent realistic decision-making processes, spatial ABMs often become extremely complex, making it difficult to identify and quantify sources of model sensitivity. This paper implements a coastal version of the economic agent-based urban growth model, CHALMS, to investigate both space- and time-varying sensitivities of simulated coastal development dynamics. We review the current state of spatially- and temporally-explicit global sensitivity analyses (GSA) fo ...

Explaining the Emerging Influence of Culture, from Individual Influences to Collective Phenomena
By: Loïs Vanhée, Frank Dignum, Volume 21 (4)
Abstract: This paper presents a simulation model and derived from it a theory to explain how known cultural influences on individual decisions lead to collective phenomena. This simulation models the evolution of a business organization, replicating key micro-level cultural influences on individual decisions (such as allocating and accepting tasks) and subsequent macro-level collective cultural phenomena (such as robustness and sensitivity to environmental complexity). As a result, we derived a theory on how to relate the influence of culture from individual decisions to collective outcomes, based on th ...

Calibrating Agent-Based Models with Linear Regressions
By: Ernesto Carrella, Richard Bailey, Jens Koed Madsen, Volume 23 (1)
Abstract: In this paper, we introduce a simple way to parametrize simulation models by using regularized linear regression. Regressions bypass the three major challenges of calibrating by minimization: selecting the summary statistics, defining the distance function and minimizing it numerically. By substituting regression with classification, we can extend this approach to model selection. We present five example estimations: a statistical fit, a biological individual-based model, a simple real business cycle model, a non-linear biological simulation and heuristics selection in a fishery agent-based mo ...

‘One Size Does Not Fit All’: A Roadmap of Purpose-Driven Mixed-Method Pathways for Sensitivity Analysis of Agent-Based Models
By: Arika Ligmann-Zielinska, Peer-Olaf Siebers, Nicholas Magliocca, Dawn C. Parker, Volker Grimm, Jing Du, Martin Cenek, Viktoriia Radchuk, Nazia N. Arbab, Sheng Li, Uta Berger, Rajiv Paudel, Derek T. Robinson, Piotr Jankowski, Li An, Xinyue Ye, Volume 23 (1)
Abstract: Designing, implementing, and applying agent-based models (ABMs) requires a structured approach, part of which is a comprehensive analysis of the output to input variability in the form of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (SA). The objective of this paper is to assist in choosing, for a given ABM, the most appropriate methods of SA. We argue that no single SA method fits all ABMs and that different methods of SA should be used based on the overarching purpose of the model. For example, abstract exploratory models that focus on a deeper understanding of the target system and its properties a ...

Metamodels for Evaluating, Calibrating and Applying Agent-Based Models: A Review
By: Bruno Pietzsch, Sebastian Fiedler, Kai G. Mertens, Markus Richter, Cédric Scherer, Kirana Widyastuti, Marie-Christin Wimmler, Liubov Zakharova, Uta Berger, Volume 23 (2)
Abstract: The recent advancement of agent-based modeling is characterized by higher demands on the parameterization, evaluation and documentation of these computationally expensive models. Accordingly, there is also a growing request for "easy to go" applications just mimicking the input-output behavior of such models. Metamodels are being increasingly used for these tasks. In this paper, we provide an overview of common metamodel types and the purposes of their usage in an agent-based modeling context. To guide modelers in the selection and application of metamodels for their own needs, we further asse ...

Simulating Crowds in Real Time with Agent-Based Modelling and a Particle Filter
By: Nick Malleson, Kevin Minors, Le-Minh Kieu, Jonathan A. Ward, Andrew West, Alison Heppenstall, Volume 23 (3)
Abstract: Agent-based modelling is a valuable approach for modelling systems whose behaviour is driven by the interactions between distinct entities, such as crowds of people. However, it faces a fundamental difficulty: there are no established mechanisms for dynamically incorporating real-time data into models. This limits simulations that are inherently dynamic, such as those of pedestrian movements, to scenario testing on historic patterns rather than real-time simulation of the present. This paper demonstrates how a particle filter could be used to incorporate data into an agent-based model of pedes ...

A Software Architecture for Mechanism-Based Social Systems Modelling in Agent-Based Simulation Models
By: Tuong Manh Vu, Charlotte Probst, Alexandra Nielsen, Hao Bai, Petra S. Meier, Charlotte Buckley, Mark Strong, Alan Brennan, Robin C. Purshouse, Volume 23 (3)
Abstract: This paper introduces the MBSSM (Mechanism-Based Social Systems Modelling) software architecture that is designed for expressing mechanisms of social theories with individual behaviour components in a unified way and implementing these mechanisms in an agent-based simulation model. The MBSSM architecture is based on a middle-range theory approach most recently expounded by analytical sociology and is designed in the object-oriented programming paradigm with Unified Modelling Language diagrams. This paper presents two worked examples of using the architecture for modelling individual behaviour ...

The Use of Surrogate Models to Analyse Agent-Based Models
By: Guus ten Broeke, George van Voorn, Arend Ligtenberg, Jaap Molenaar, Volume 24 (2)
Abstract: The utility of Agent Based Models (ABMs) for decision making support as well as for scientific applications can be increased considerably by the availability and use of methodologies for thorough model behaviour analysis. In view of their intrinsic construction, ABMs have to be analysed numerically. Furthermore, ABM behaviour is often complex, featuring strong non-linearities, tipping points, and adaptation. This easily leads to high computational costs, presenting a serious practical limitation. Model developers and users alike would benefit from methodologies that can explore large parts of ...

No Free Lunch when Estimating Simulation Parameters
By: Ernesto Carrella, Volume 24 (2)
Abstract: In this paper, we have estimated the parameters of 41 simulation models to find which of 9 estimation algorithms performs better. Unfortunately, no single algorithm was the best for all or even most of the models. Rather, five main results emerge from this research. First, each algorithm was the best estimator for at least one parameter. Second, the best estimation algorithm varied not only between models but even between parameters of the same model. Third, each estimation algorithm failed to estimate at least one identifiable parameter. Fourth, choosing the right algorithm improved estimatio ...

Multimodal Evolutionary Algorithms for Easing the Complexity of Agent-Based Model Calibration
By: Juan Francisco Robles, Enrique Bermejo, Manuel Chica, Óscar Cordón, Volume ()
Abstract: Agent-based modelling usually involves a calibration stage where a set of parameters needs to be estimated. The calibration process can be automatically performed by using calibration algorithms which search for an optimal parameter configuration to obtain quality model fittings. This issue makes the use of multimodal optimisation methods interesting for calibration as they can provide diverse solution sets with similar and optimal fitness. In this contribution, we compare nine competitive multimodal evolutionary algorithms, both classical and recent, to calibrate agent-based models. We analys ...