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Asking the Oracle: Introducing Forecasting Principles into Agent-Based Modelling
By: Samer Hassan, Javier Arroyo, José Manuel Galán, Luis Antunes, Juan Pavón, Volume 16 (3)
Abstract: This paper presents a set of guidelines, imported from the field of forecasting, that can help social simulation and, more specifically, agent-based modelling practitioners to improve the predictive performance and the robustness of their models. The presentation starts with a discussion on the current debate on prediction in social processes, followed by an overview of the recent experience and lessons learnt from the field of forecasting. This is the basis to define standard practices when developing agent-based models under the perspective of forecasting experimentation. In this context, th ...